Not too long ago the world celebrated the population of the earth reaching 7 billion people. And while a few proud people were happy to see the miracle birth happen, most of us had the rational thought… There is way too many people on the planet. For those who need a refresher on how quickly the population explosion has been in the last 2 centuries, here’s a few stats…
Prior to the invention of modern agriculture around 12000 years ago, the total human population of the planet for the previous 2-3 million years fluctuated around 1 million people subsisting on hunting &gathering. Like all species on the planet, humans were limited in their population by the predator/prey principle. But then an amazing thing happened, humans discovered agriculture and the food supply, for all intense purposes, was limitless. The only limit on food was fertile land and humans quickly spread around the planet planting crops. By the 14th century, the human population was around 400 million. The Black Death Pandemic reduced 25% of the population, but by dawn of the industrial revolution in the 18th century the world population was around 500 million. With the industrial revolution, life expectancy increased dramatically, birth deaths decreased, and humans were able to spread rapidly culminating with a population milestone in the early 19th century of 1 billion. Since that point, the population explosion has increased even faster. By 1927 there was 2 billion people. 3 billion was reached by 1960. 4 by 1974, 5 by 1987, 6 by 1999, and now we are at 7. The United Nations estimates we should reach 9 billion by 2046.
It begs the question… how many people can the earth handle and when are we gonna start seeing the decline? The short answer is, we are getting close. But lets explore why.
There’s always a possibility that a plague or a catastrophic disaster could wipeout a significant portion of the population(and it’s easy to argue that we are due for one) but if we stick to the fundamentals of the predator/prey principles we should start to see a decline before the inevitable doomsday, species killing, whatever strikes us event. The big issue facing the planet is the lack of resources to sustain the current population, let alone the predicted 9 billion.
What are the basic needs that humans require to exist and grow? (Don’t worry, it’s not a trick question?) Food, Water, Air, Shelter and the Opposite Sex. Without those 5 basic components, there are no new babies. In the past, mankind has always been able to expand their obtainable resources by cultivating new lands. And with the industrial age, we’ve been able to expand our reach to cultivate lands far away from where we live. Today, we are only limited by our ability to fund access to these needs. And that’s the problem we are facing today. The world economy is showing signs of collapse. Even if we manage to stabilize the current economic crisis the world of cheap energy is over.
As painful as it is for a lot of people to admit, the world runs on oil. Almost all goods that are produced require shipping to reach their customers. As oil prices go up, the cost of shipping goes up too. And where that has a particularly harmful effect is with food. With 7 billion people on the planet the cost of food is a major issue. Every year hundreds of billions of dollars are spent to subsidize food costs and as oil prices get higher, the subsidies are forced to get larger.
In the past, OPEC would respond to the high oil prices and flood the market with oil, thus lowering the price, but a problem has formed in the last few years that is causing the markets concern. It would seem that we have reached Peak Oil. Peak Oil is a term used to define the point in time when the maximum amount of daily production possible cannot exceed the demand. Earlier this year is was revealed on Wikileaks that the head geologist for Saudi Aramco does not believe that Saudi has the production capacity to reach the 12.5Million Barrels of Oil/Day target that is being asked of them by 2012, and that their reserves are overstated by 40%. Translation: They are running out of oil. And while we may want to ignore this fact with one of the world’s largest oil deposits in our backyard, there are significant differences between Saudi oil fields and the Athabasca Oil Sands. Saudi oil is conventional oil that produces at very high rates with little capital costs and has high recovery factors(they can get most of it out of the ground). The Athabasca Oil Sands are an unconventional deposit of heavy oil that requires significant capital to extract, doesn’t produce at high rates, and has a low recovery factor. In other words, the Athabasca Oil Sands are only of value when oil prices surge, and because they don’t produce at significant rates, they don’t have the ability to lower prices. This principle applies to all unconventional hydrocarbon plays. And its an important fact to remember when understanding global oil production. The easy to find, easy to produce, conventional oil deposits are disappearing quickly. The ability to control oil prices by turning on the taps has disappeared. High oil prices are now the norm. And that means food costs are going up too.
So what does that mean for the global population? It means we are approaching Peak People. There are no more new lands left to settle and cultivate. All we can do is grow denser and denser in population. With food costs escalating and governments lacking the funds to subsidize, we are quickly approaching a point where shipping food is going to become uneconomic. That may sound great for those who believe in buying locally, but there are reasons why we ship food in from so far away… the simplest being… it’s much cheaper. Buying locally will be great for local producers and will be affordable to the middle class, but will place heavy burdens on low-income families… and that’s just in 1st world nations.
In 3rd world nations, it means the starvation of a significant portion of the population. This reality is gonna put most of the 3rd world nations in a desperate state. Anger against 1st world nations will escalate, resulting in more terror attacks, and weaker countries may quickly find themselves prey to the stronger ones. Expect 3rd world countries to fight each other first. Historical enemies will attack each other for territory. War will spread and the 1st world nations will devote their resources to defence. It’s at this point that pestilence is likely to spread out the countries with high death rates. We can hope that nuclear weapons will not be used, but desperate nations may resort to desperate measures. If I had to place bets, I would say India and Pakistan will light each other up. Inevitably, the fighting will spread to the 1st world nations who will all be competing with each other to conquer the lands of the weakened 3rd world nations. Essentially, it will be a 3rd world war. The environment likely ends up being the biggest victim and out of the dust comes a new world.
And where does Canada fit in? Well, we are one of the few nations that has abundant resources and an extremely low population density. So while we probably don’t need to be attacking other nations we do need to be concerned about being a target. It’s in Canada’s best interest to keep up friendly relations with those who can protect us, but also to beef up defense spending. As sea levels rise, it will be important to protect our borders from displaced individuals looking to build a new home. And some nation is either gonna try to take our resources by force, or through some harsh deals and Canada had better be in a position to defend itself when that day comes(That nation is likely the US). It’s also in our best interest to develop as many renewable energy sources as possible. The Athabasca Oil Sands will eventually make Canada the Oil Drug Lords of the world. But like any good pusher, it’s important not to be hooked on your own drug. Sell the oil to the rest of world in exchange for other resources in limited supply here. Hopefully by the time the rest of the 1st world nations have divided up the planet, we can go back to some peace for a while.
And the crazy thing is that this is all likely to happen in the next 30 years. It may sound like fear mongering, but you can be very glad you live in Canada. We are about to become the most envied nation on the planet.
Madness Or Genius 
Malthus was discredited last century. The world is not overpopulated. Not even close. The rate of food production and gains made in arable land worldwide through the advance of technology have far outstripped the rate of population increase. Yes, industrialized agriculture relies on oil – but it doesn’t have to – no reason we can’t built electric combines just like we’re building electric cars. The fact remains though that advancements in the reclamation of arable land combined with advancements in fertilization, pesticide and herbicide use have added up to increases in production far beyond any population increases globally.
Additionally, every nation in the world is facing declining birthrates – at present rates of decline the world’s population will never reach 10 billion. So the problem is actually already going away on its own.
But beside that, the consequences of faltering fertility in 1st world nations will within the next 30 years have serious impacts on the prosperity and economy of all these nations, with the most severe effects on those with significant social systems. In those nations the social systems will collapse under the strain of aging populations and not nearly enough young, healthy people to pay the necessary taxes to support them. If the West doesn’t start having more babies and at least stabilize their populations those nations are literally screwed.
Politically, the consequences of population control are going to play out even faster. China is going to have to start a war to deal with their excess male population as a result of their one child policy’s unintended consequence of seeing masses of abortions of female infants, and a massive disparity in gender distribution. (By the way, how is it with their one child policy in place for 30 years now, their population continues to increase?) In Russia, white Russians have had their birthrates drop so low (due largely to masses of abortions) that within the next 10 years Muslims will be the majority in the Russian military. When that happens… we will have the second largest nuclear stockpile in the world controlled by a group that is demonstrated as prone to radical acts of barbarism in the modern era.
Friend, the West not having babies is going to cost the world dearly in the next 20-30 years. And you think we need to slow it down more? You won’t enjoy the consequences of your opinion.
I wasn’t quoting Reverend Malthus, but even if I was, he was never discredited. His ideas were challenged by some and became the stepping stones of others. Like alot of philosphy, it evolves with more understanding. Let’s address some of your statements…
You say the “The world is not overpopulated.” Really?! You’ve clearly never been to India. And while there are certain 1st world nations that are still under populated, Canada being one of them, most of the 3rd world is crippled by over population.
“The rate of food production and gains made in arable land worldwide through the advance of technology have far outstripped the rate of population increase.” That was the 20th century. Since 2007, the world has seen a drastic increase in food prices. The UN has even declared this a global food crisis. You might be able to produce food, but you can’t make it affordable.
“Yes, industrialized agriculture relies on oil – but it doesn’t have to – no reason we can’t built electric combines just like we’re building electric cars.” Where do you think electricity comes from? The resources needed to completely become free of oil are astronomical. Green energy always sounds great, but still only accounts for a small fraction of the energy demands of the planet. And its incredibly expensive to set up. In order to keep food prices low, you need cheap energy.
“The fact remains though that advancements in the reclamation of arable land combined with advancements in fertilization, pesticide and herbicide use have added up to increases in production far beyond any population increases globally.” Again. Nope. Stockpiles are at 60 year lows. There are rice shortages and bread shortages around the world. The FAO food price index is at an all-time high.
“Additionally, every nation in the world is facing declining birthrates” That’s true. The birth rate has declined from 37.2* (1950-55) to 20.3* (2005-2010) But the world mortality rate is dropping too. 19.5* to 8.5* (same period) The result is still a net population increase. (*per 1000 people)
“In those nations the social systems will collapse under the strain of aging populations and not nearly enough young, healthy people to pay the necessary taxes to support them.” The aging population of most 1st world nations are quickly learning that the burden they decided to place on the younger generations is not sustainable (see Greece) and they are postponing retirement longer than they expected until they have enough resources to sustain themselves, and pensions will be greatly reduced.
“By the way, how is it with China’s one child policy in place for 30 years now, their population continues to increase?” The one child policy is only strictly enforced in urban settings, rural citizens can have multiple spaced births. And then there are the countless individuals who don’t bother registering. China estimates they have stopped over 300 Million births.
“In Russia, white Russians have had their birthrates drop so low (due largely to masses of abortions) that within the next 10 years Muslims will be the majority in the Russian military. When that happens… we will have the second largest nuclear stockpile in the world controlled by a group that is demonstrated as prone to radical acts of barbarism in the modern era.” I’m not sure whether you are being racist towards Russians or Muslims, but it’s offensive either way. Russia’s nuclear stockpile will still be Russia’s nuclear stockpile, regardless of the demographics of the Russian army.
The food crises you speak of have only become pronounced in the last 5 years. You can’t tell me that when earth’s population was 6.9 billion somehow everything was ok but now that it’s 7 things are out of control. No, friend there are other explanations for the urrent rice and wheat price jumps. One of the biggest is back to your views on sustainable energy, subsidies for the production of ethanol as a fuels substitute via corn has resulted in huge numbers of farmers taking fields out of food production to get in on the lucrative opprtunity. There are other causal influences but my point is it is simplistic and inaccurate to simply ascribe the whole thing to overpopulation.
I don’t deny there are areas of the earth that suffer from overpopulation but i don’t buy the whole earth must be doomed because some areas are. Do a simple math experiment. Take the population of the earth and divide it by acres of arable land currently available. Then look up the numbers of acres each person needs to farm himself to sustain himself. I believe it is around 0.75 but i might be a little off. Then rethink the needs of fossil fuels if each person or family were to focus on farming that piece of land. Yes it would take a reorganization of geopolitics on a massive scale to but is probably no more interventionist than massive population reductions and definitely a lot more humane.
But that’s the whole point of this post. We’ve reached peak oil. The era of cheap energy is ending, and as a result the transportation costs of food are going up. Green Energy has great possibilities, but it comes with significant capital costs that most nations can’t afford(and I agree that bio fuels are a poorly thought idea). In first world nations, that means your gonna see alot more local producers start up, because (as you’ve stated) we’ve got the land to do so and it reduces transportation costs. 3rd world nations, on the other hand, are simply looking at massive food shortages as governments run out of subsidy money.
I was fascianted by the comment you made about arable land and how much is needed for each person. Numbers are all over the place. According to the world bank data site, the arable land per person has decreased from 1.00 acres/person in 1961 to 0.51 acres/person in 2009. They define arable land as lands “defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded.” In other words, it’s land that is currently arable. The percentage of total land that is arable has increased from 9.6% in 1961 to 10.9% in 1991 and has decreased to 10.7% in 2009.
As for how much land you would need, I’ve seen estimates as low as 1/8th of an acre if you went 100% vegan and were extremely efficient and up to 5 acres for cattle production. Most articles I found tend to use the 1 acre/person rule of thumb and it seems logical that communities working together could get that down to 0.75 acres/person if they were efficient. Unfortunately, we passed that point in 1980.
If I project out the current estimates, in 10 years the world population will be 7.8 Billion, and the arable land/person will be 0.42 acres/person. Which means you need to find a way to increase arable land and improve the yield of arable land to reduce the needed acres per person.
Or… reduce the population.